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Wednesday, June 30, 2004

The Rise of the Independents 

Rhodes Cook wrote a compelling piece in last Sunday's Washington Post called Moving On, about the growing percentage of voters who are registered Independents.


"In this starkly partisan era of Red and Blue America, we may need a third color to describe those who formally call themselves neither Republican nor Democrat. When it comes to registering voters, the two major parties can only look in envy -- and dismay -- at the swelling ranks of unaffiliated voters."

What's compelling about this is when it comes to candidate's energizing their base. In the past that has meant throwing a few meaty bones to the base to ensure their backing while the candidate when hunting for a few swing voters to put him/her over the top.


"Since the waning years of the Reagan administration, or basically since the last periodical cicada mating cycle, the number of "other" voters has proliferated. In the 27 states (plus the District of Columbia) that have been registering voters by party since 1987, the Democratic share has plummeted 8 percentage points, declining from an aggregate total of 51 percent to 43 percent. The Republican share has stayed steady at 33 percent. But the proportion of voters who have not identified themselves with either of the major parties has jumped 8 percentage points, from 16 to 24 percent."

"What's so significant about the rise of the unaffiliated? Well, it's one thing to tell a pollster that you consider yourself "independent." No particular consequence arises from that self-identification. But to register as unaffiliated is a stronger statement of preference (or lack of one). Political parties talk about the "base," and how to energize it. These numbers suggest that the base is eroding, or at least is harder to identify and rely on."

The implications for both Kerry and Bush are monumental.


"... the trend line is unmistakable, with the registration figures since the last presidential election being particularly telling. Over the last four years, as election officials have purged their rolls of inactive voters, the Democratic total in the party-registration states has fallen by 1.3 million. The Republicans are down far less, only 170,000 in those states. But the "other" category remains a growth stock, adding more than 600,000 voters since George W. Bush and Al Gore did battle."

Another interesting observation is that despite the efforts of Ralph Nader, and The Committee for a Unified Independent Party on his behalf, clearly the large majority of registered Independents don't see themselves as the "base" for whomever claims to represent them. His polling numbers don't come even remotely close to the numbers of registered Independents.

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