Friday, August 20, 2004
...we are the Sultans of Swing...
Dire Straits
Pew Research has released their latest polling data on the election. The headline on the poll:
Public Faults Bush on Economy - 55% Say Jobs are Scarce
Kerry Makes Gains on Issues, Bush Maintains Leadership Image Advantage
On the race itself:
Kerry 47
Bush 45
Nader 2
Brian Keegan over at Centerfield first brought this poll to my attention. Centerfield is on my daily list of blog reads. While I don't always agree with them (I'm waiting for Mathew to hunt me down in my sleep and duct tape my fingers together to keep me from posting) the comments tend to be cerebral and interesting.
Brian's analysis is that the Bush Campaign has had some success defining Kerry...as Bush still polls a "leadership" advantage. Those numbers haven't budged much in the last few months, either. But interestingly when it comes to specific issues (including "morality"...which seems very vague), Kerry has surpassed Bush and in many areas is pulling away. To me this suggests while the Bush campaign is having some success defining Kerry, they appear to be struggling where it counts: issues.
Ruy Teixeira also analyzes the Pew poll on his site. Ruy notes that "On eight of the 11 foreign policy issues in the poll on which there are significant partisan gaps, opinions of swing voters are closer to those of Kerry supporters than to those of Bush voters.
On several issues, the differences between swing voters and committed Bush voters is substantial. More than half of swing voters (53%) regard strengthening the United Nations as a top priority compared with 35% of Bush voters who have this view. And about twice as many swing voters as Bush supporters view global warming as a major concern (35% vs. 18%). "
As Kevin often reminds me, swing voters are what move an election one way or the other. This Pew Poll seems to indicate that Kerry has the definite advantage both on issues and with swing voters.
There is a caveat, however. The election is still quite a few weeks away and the GOP Convention has yet to take place. There's lots of time for things to move either way.
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Pew Research has released their latest polling data on the election. The headline on the poll:
Public Faults Bush on Economy - 55% Say Jobs are Scarce
Kerry Makes Gains on Issues, Bush Maintains Leadership Image Advantage
On the race itself:
Kerry 47
Bush 45
Nader 2
Brian Keegan over at Centerfield first brought this poll to my attention. Centerfield is on my daily list of blog reads. While I don't always agree with them (I'm waiting for Mathew to hunt me down in my sleep and duct tape my fingers together to keep me from posting) the comments tend to be cerebral and interesting.
Brian's analysis is that the Bush Campaign has had some success defining Kerry...as Bush still polls a "leadership" advantage. Those numbers haven't budged much in the last few months, either. But interestingly when it comes to specific issues (including "morality"...which seems very vague), Kerry has surpassed Bush and in many areas is pulling away. To me this suggests while the Bush campaign is having some success defining Kerry, they appear to be struggling where it counts: issues.
Ruy Teixeira also analyzes the Pew poll on his site. Ruy notes that "On eight of the 11 foreign policy issues in the poll on which there are significant partisan gaps, opinions of swing voters are closer to those of Kerry supporters than to those of Bush voters.
On several issues, the differences between swing voters and committed Bush voters is substantial. More than half of swing voters (53%) regard strengthening the United Nations as a top priority compared with 35% of Bush voters who have this view. And about twice as many swing voters as Bush supporters view global warming as a major concern (35% vs. 18%). "
As Kevin often reminds me, swing voters are what move an election one way or the other. This Pew Poll seems to indicate that Kerry has the definite advantage both on issues and with swing voters.
There is a caveat, however. The election is still quite a few weeks away and the GOP Convention has yet to take place. There's lots of time for things to move either way.
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