Sunday, September 05, 2004
Prognostication
This post is for those Kerry supporters who are fit to be tied over the recent polling numbers that have been all over the news. As Mark Twain famously stated, "reports of my demise have been greatly exagerated."
Of the four most recent major polls, only two are getting any real mention by the allegedly liberal media. Time had it Bush 50, Kerry 42. Newsweek had it Bush 54, Kerry 43. But there are two other major polls out which give a very different picture. ARG had Kerry on top 48 to 46. While Zogby showed a slight bounce for Bush, 46 to 44. The Zogby poll is of "likely" voters and thus has a greater margin of error than the "registered" voter poll numbers cited here.
Interestingly, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows that the largest that Bush's post convention bounce got was Bush 49.1, Kerry 44.7. But today it's already swung back to basically where it was before the RNC with Bush @ 47.6 and Kerry @ 46.4 - a statistical dead heat.
What we have here folks is a horse race.
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